Dear Members,

The dam level yesterday morning was 27.6% with 1.5mm of rain. (Last week it was 19%)

There’s No Prize for the one who collects the most business cards.

(Or the one who gives away the most)   Networking is about developing relationships, rather than chasing a quick sale.  And if you spend your entire session rushing around trying to meet as many people as possible, you are unlikely to have a real conversation with any of them!

Retail sales to show further signs of improvement.

This morning (11:30am SA time) sees the release of real retail trade sales figures, where our 3.2% y/y forecast is somewhat more optimistic than the 2.1% y/y Bloomberg consensus forecast.

A general improvement in the domestic economic climate, easing consumer debt servicing pressures from the 550bp in interest rate cuts delivered since December 2008 and our belief that real income growth continues to improve slowly bodes relatively well for South Africa’s consumption recovery, in our view.

till relatively low levels of consumer confidence, a domestic labour market that remains depressed and household debt-to-disposable income levels on the order of 80% should, however, keep this recovery relatively modest throughout 2010, in our view.

Note: Data at close of previous trading day.

Domestic markets

The JSE all-share index ended 0,86 per cent higher as it joined global equity markets in brushing aside the Greece downgrade. Trade volumes returned to normal levels as investors awaited today’s futures close-out. The local market has been experiencing light volumes since last Friday's World Cup kick-off. The resources, platinum, and gold indices rose by 0,86 per cent, 1,85 per cent, and 0,62 per cent respectively. The banks index gained 0,91 per cent, the financials index was up by 1,04 per cent, and the industrials index was 0,77 per cent higher.

The rand remained slightly stronger in late trade on Tuesday afternoon as improved risk sentiment and a perkier euro added direction. The local currency is currently trading at R7,61 per US dollar, at R9,34 per euro, and at R11,28 per pound sterling.

Having succumbed earlier to a softer rand, South African bonds found some succour in a well-bid weekly auction on Tuesday. But traders described trade as thin and directionless ahead of a public holiday on Wednesday.

Commodities

Gold ended with small losses, after teetering for much of the day relatively flat, as some short-term traders took small profits off early one-week highs, especially once the euro unwound its two-week highs against the US dollar. Spot gold is currently trading at US$1 282/oz.

Oil prices rose for a third straight session yesterday, ending a choppy session at a six-week high amid mixed economic data and a US government inventory report that showed crude oil stocks rose and gasoline stocks fell last week. Brent crude oil is currently trading at US$77,75/barrel. 

Chamber Greetings,

Colleen Till